The Death of the College Football Upset: Why FCS vs. Power Four Games Are Becoming Pointless
Picture this: It’s a crisp autumn Saturday in 2023. Sacramento State, an FCS team, storms onto the Stanford field and pulls off a shocker against the Power Five Cardinal. The crowd sits stunned, the highlights flood social media, and college football’s chaotic magic feels alive. Now fast-forward to 2026. That Sacramento State victory? The last FCS upset of a Power Four team. Two years later, 125 straight wins by Power Four squads. The question isn’t if the FCS upset is dying—it’s whether it’s already dead.
Why the Upset Machine Broke
Let’s cut to the chase: College football’s hierarchy has calcified. The transfer portal and NIL deals aren’t just shaking up rosters—they’re vacuuming talent out of FCS programs and leaving them hollow. Power Four teams now operate like corporate giants raiding small startups for their best employees. FCS schools can’t compete financially, and the result is a talent exodus. Since 2022, Power Four teams have steamrolled FCS opponents at a 99.1% win rate. That’s not dominance—it’s systemic suffocation.
What many people don’t realize is that this isn’t just about money. It’s about optics. Power Four coaches schedule FCS cupcakes to inflate records, not to get tested. Sure, 57 of this year’s FCS-Power Four matchups feature ranked FCS teams—but that’s like bringing a steak knife to a tank battle. The games are PR stunts, not competitive contests. Even Group of Five teams, once vulnerable to FCS scrubs, are now 92% winners against them. The sport’s last refuge for chaos is disappearing.
The Transfer Portal’s Dirty Secret
Let’s unpack the transfer portal. On paper, it’s freedom for athletes. In practice? It’s a weaponized arms race. Power Four programs lure FCS stars with NIL deals that smaller schools can’t match. A star quarterback like Chase Mason (South Dakota State) might stick around for a shot at the NFL, but most? They’re gone by the second semester. What this really suggests is that the portal isn’t about opportunity—it’s about consolidation. The rich get richer, and FCS teams become farm systems for Power Four dynasties. Even North Dakota State, an FCS Goliath, is jumping ship to the FBS. Why? Because staying put means slow death by irrelevance.
2026’s ‘Contenders’: Desperation Theater
The article lists six FCS teams with “shots” at ending the streak. Youngstown State vs. Kentucky. Monmouth vs. West Virginia. Cute stories, but let’s not kid ourselves. These are wishful thinking dressed as analysis. Even if an FCS team wins in 2026, it’ll be a fluke—a Hail Mary, a refereeing blunder, a QB trance. The structural gaps are too wide. Take South Dakota State: They’re back-to-back champs but 0-4 vs. Power Four. Why? Because Northwestern, a Power Four team in name only, still outspends them on facilities and coaching salaries.
A detail that I find especially interesting is how these games mirror college basketball’s McFlurry era. Remember when mid-majors could topple bluebloods? Now? You’d need a meteor strike to beat Kansas or Gonzaga. Football’s heading there. The 125-game streak isn’t a drought—it’s a tombstone.
The Unspoken Cost: Killing the Soul of College Football
Here’s the dirty truth: Fans crave unpredictability. Without upsets, college football becomes the NFL West Coast offense—efficient, boring, predetermined. The Sacramento State-Stanford game drew 30,000 fans to a usually moribund FCS stadium. Imagine if that energy vanished. From my perspective, the sport’s charm lies in its regional rivalries and Cinderella scripts. But when Power Four teams treat FCS opponents as tackle dummies, we lose something intangible. The question isn’t whether an FCS team will win again—it’s whether anyone will care to watch them try.
What’s Next? Embrace the Tank
If I were an FCS coach, I’d stop pretending. Start tanking games against Power Four teams to secure better portal recruits. Build a ‘process’ cult like the Philadelphia 76ers. Or better yet, unionize. FCS programs need collective bargaining to secure revenue shares or NIL collectives. But until then, enjoy the streak. 125 games and counting. Parity? What parity?
One thing that immediately stands out is that this isn’t just about football. It’s about economics, ego, and the commodification of amateurism. The FCS vs. Power Four gap is a microcosm of a sport losing its soul to capitalism. And unless someone rewires the system? The next upset will be the last one ever.
